<p>-
- Why the definition of 'bearish' may vary for long-term investors</p>
<p>Sam RoOctober 13, 2025 at 1:14 AM</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co</p>
<p>If you follow business news, you'll regularly see financial professionals, bank CEOs, and other pundits warn that the stock market is likely to fall in the near future.</p>
<p>Most of these calls predict a decline ranging from about 5% to 15%. More than a modest pullback but not quite the 20%+ decline of a bear market.</p>
<p>Are these calls "bearish"? It depends on who you ask. Most market watchers would say any prediction of decline is "bearish."</p>
<p>Not me!</p>
<p>Expecting a drawdown that falls short of an outright bear market while prices are near record highs doesn't meet my definition of being "bearish." In fact, I would argue that expecting such declines in the near term is a critical part of a thoughtful, longer-term bull thesis because these moves happen all of the time.</p>
<p>As this classic chart from JPMorgan's Guide to the Markets shows, the S&P 500 has experienced an average intra-year max drawdown (i.e., a decline from its high) of 14%. Notably, many big drops occurred in years when the stock market ultimately closed higher!</p>
<p>It is common for the S&P 500 to experience a big drawdown in the near term. (Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)</p>
<p>Being a bull doesn't mean you think the stock market will only go up because the stock market will often fall on its way up.</p>
<p>If you're an investor and you don't expect bouts of volatility, you're more likely to make an emotion-driven, money-losing mistake. It's why you should always keep your stock market seat belts fastened.</p>
<p>Having said all that, here's my attempt at some definitions from the perspective of a long-term investor:</p>
<p>bearish: expecting prices to trend lower with intermittent rallies, eventually falling by 20% or more from a recent high</p>
<p>bullish: expecting prices to trend higher with intermittent drawdowns, and eventually climbing by 20% or more from a recent low</p>
<p>In other contexts, such as short-term trading, "bearish" and "bullish" can take on different meanings. I'm writing for long-term investors.</p>
<p>Admittedly, 20% is an arbitrary figure. But it meets the classical definitions of bull and bear markets.</p>
<p>These definitions are a work in progress, and they're far from complete. I welcome your feedback in the comments section below!</p>
<p>Long-term optimism, short-term cautious optimism 😬</p>
<p>Unfortunately for long-term investors, a 14%-ish drawdown isn't as bad as it gets.</p>
<p>While a longer investment time horizon improves your odds of generating a positive return, it also increases the likelihood you'll experience a bear market along the way.</p>
<p>Using history as a guide, the guys on the Animal Spirits podcast illustrated this inconvenient truth in the chart below.</p>
<p>The longer your holding period, the greater the odds you will experience a bear market. (Source: Animal Spirits)</p>
<p>Anyone who's been in the market in recent years can appreciate this risk. The S&P 500 fell:</p>
<p>20% from September to December 2018.</p>
<p>34% from February to March 2020.</p>
<p>25% from January to October 2022.</p>
<p>19% from February to April 2025.</p>
<p>Indeed, investing is an unpleasant process.</p>
<p>The good news is the market is much higher today, which means all of those ugly drawdowns proved to be great buying opportunities.</p>
<p>This is why I say I'm an optimist long term, but a cautious optimist short term.</p>
<p>A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co</p>
<a href="https://data852.click/5a32cd58501e613bf372/ee0a75caf0/?placementName=default" class="dirlink-1">Original Article on Source</a>
Source: "AOL Money"
Source: AsherMag
Full Article on Source: VOUX MAG
#LALifestyle #USCelebrities
0 Comments