Joel Smyth Fantasy Analyst Mon, October 26, 2026 at 2:31 PM UTC · 6 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement In fantasy football, you have to look back to move forward. Fantasy points are the goal, but how a player gets there is the key. Analyst Joel Smyth breaks down 8 numbers to know from Week 7 in order to win your matchup in Week 8 and beyond.
Of the RB touches between Chase Brown and Samaje Perine went to Brown . It was another tough fantasy day for Brown, but at least it was a tough day as the bellcow, rather than the split we saw in Week 5. The low point of Brown's fantasy day came when Perine got the carry from the one-yard line, one of his four touches on the day. Brown did have the other two snaps inside the five, and two carries inside the 10, but stayed at one touchdown on the season after scoring 15 in Burrow's prior 15 full games.
Brown had 11 carries, five targets and 75% of the snaps, as Perine had virtually nothing before vulturing the goal-line attempt. I would expect Brown to have games similar to Week 7, yet still maintain a workhorse role as the Bengals starter. It doesn't look like we'll see the consistent RB1 we saw last year, but better days that mirror Week 1 and 4 are coming.
Pass rate for the Minnesota Vikings with Kyler Murray . In the past, Vikings offenses that were not the 2025 disaster (2022-2024) dropped back to pass over 61% of the time, a top-three rate in the NFL. It's a new offense in 2026, centered around the run game and leaning on their dominant defense. The Vikings have had top defenses before and still remained pass heavy, but Kevin O'Connell has taken a turn this season, dropping well below 2025's rate. The combination of Murray being much less successful than Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold from past seasons, averaging only 6.6 yards per dropback, and the pass rate, may cause some trouble.
Jordan Addison has largely been unusable when Justin Jefferson is available, and Jefferson has been slightly below expectation in his two full games with Murray. Week 6 was a positive for Jefferson overall, but Week 7 made it back-to-back weeks with only seven targets. The 11.1 half-PPR PPG in those two games is a letdown considering the easy matchups. If the volume and/or efficiency doesn't increase soon, Jefferson's fantasy ceiling will be in trouble.
The snap difference in the Minnesota backfield prior to Aaron Jones Sr.'s injury, favoring Jordan Mason . The run-heavy nature has helped the Vikings backfield, relying on the volume with their rushing success rate still ranking in the bottom-10. Mason's return in Week 7 was largely the same as Week 1, with each RB getting a near 50/50 split in the carries. I will point out Mason was the surprise leader in routes (11-6) before Jones left with his injury, but failed to bring in either of his targets. If Jones does miss time, Mason can fill his role from Weeks 2-6, averaging 24.3 touches per game and 13.5 fantasy PPG. Next up will be the Detroit Lions defense, which currently ranks 32nd in total defense.
Targets for Tre Tucker, with zero of them being deep balls (targets of 20+ air yards) . The one-dimensional vertical threat hasn't been very one-dimensional recently. Sure, that part of his game is still key, but Klint Kubiak has used his WR1 as just that, a WR1. A 7.4 average depth of target is Tucker's lowest on the season, bringing in five of the 12 targets for over 100 yards. As long as Kirk Cousins is starting, the raw numbers make him a safer play, as Cousins has over 240 passing yards in each of the last six weeks. Tucker's floor isn't much worse than 90% of flex plays and brings a huge ceiling along with it.
Touches for Jonah Coleman, as well as the combined touches for J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey . The rookie wasted no time making an impact in his return from IR as he led the RB room in just about everything: snaps, carries, routes, yards, all of it. After Dobbins got the first three carries of the game, Coleman out-carried Denver's RB1 9-to-3, adding two receptions. Dobbins was saved in this one with a goal-line TD, but going forward, all three are TD-or-bust, with Coleman having the best shot at carving out a weekly fantasy role.
Pass rate for the Green Bay Packers in their first game with Josh Jacobs back . The Packers' pass-first attack stayed strong in Week 7, going above its season average with Jordan Love dropping back to pass 46 times. The concern isn't fully washed away; the Lions defense has faced a pass-heavy attack nearly every game because of their weaknesses, but it gives some confidence that Packers WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden will stay as elite options.
Green Bay is bottom-five in yards before contact and two more injuries on the offensive line (Sean Rhyan, Jacob Monk) this week isn't helping its cause. There's been more than just a RB talent issue. The area I do have some concern with is at the goal line, where Love already has five passing touchdowns. Jacobs has been a ball magnet in the past inside the five-yard line.
PPR PPG for Tee Higgins since 2024 with Joe Burrow, which would rank as the WR6 . Tee Higgins is consistently underrated and it's happening again. In the past, he has dealt with plenty of injury issues, but when he and his QB are healthy, Ja'Marr Chase isn't the only fantasy WR1 on the team. This season in particular, Higgins is just inside the top-10 for both half-PPR and PPR leagues, which is more impressive with only two touchdowns so far. In the last two seasons, Higgins' red-zone ability has propelled him to a 10.1% touchdown-per-target rate, and currently only at 4.0% in 2026. Only two scores and he's still top-10 in fantasy.
Receiving yards for Browns rookie KC Concepcion . Cleveland has tried to get the rookie involved, giving Concepcion a league-high nine designed targets entering Week 7, but it didn't all come together until this Sunday. He had 10 targets, 81 yards after the catch and sadly a dropped TD, though it still turned into a WR1 fantasy day. His yards after the catch are what made the day possible, nearly matching his season total from his first 35 targets. It can be difficult to predict which of the Browns' pass-catchers is worth playing, making me view Concepcion as a bye-week fill-in that has more upside value as a rookie receiver entering the back half of the year.
Source: Sports
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